Points in the Paint
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The Center of the Problem
Date Posted: 04 October 2010 0 CommentsWelcome to Points in the Paint! This is going to be my weekly submission of fantasy goodness to give you that competitive edge in your fantasy NBA leagues. This week I will be discussing the impending crash of the Center market. Don't be scared. That was just a slight hyperbole to highlight what I really want to say about the extra thin market for big men (Centers especially) in this season's fantasy draft.
I know I am not Gordon Gecko and I know this isn't Wall Street, but let's be realistic about what fantasy basketball really is. It's a commodities trading game, dressed up in the jerseys of our favorite NBA basketball players. And in order to win at this game, like in the financial markets, one must always be acutely aware of the prevailing supply and demand of the “commodities” (players) being played, valued and traded.
My proposition is that in this 2010-2011 season the supply of good, quality, big men will thinner than ever. Now I know that the fantasy-indoctrinated among might be saying that this has been an umbrella issue that has already been prevalent in the past, for many years now. It's not my intent to scare nor manipulate the market, but this season is different and is tiers above previous seasons in terms of Center scarcity.
Since it is standard in Yahoo 12-man leagues that there are TWO Center roster slots to be filled, managers will be finding difficult to fill them with quality big men
The Walking Wounded: Injury Round-up
Carlos Boozer (PF/C), CHI - who was recently acquired by the Chicago Bulls this off-season to bolster it's front court and provide its long-desired inside scoring post-player broke his hand and is projected to miss two months. That will definitely be an initial setback for Chicago's plans this season. Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson will have to cooperatively hold the fort in his absence.
Al Harrington (PF/C), DEN – is suffering from plantar fasciitis. While this is not a career threatening nor is it even a season ending injury, this condition is known to be a lingering one. There is no cure per se, except for rest and some minor rehabilitation. If Harrington does NOT get enough rest this pre-season. He may be hampered by the injury come the regular season. Joakim Noah of the Bulls suffered from this last season and missed about 16 games due to it.
Andrew Bogut (C), MIL – won't be limited during this pre-season and is expecting to bounce back after a horrible elbow injury late, last season. He broke out as top tier fantasy center in 2009, averaging 2.5 blocks per game. However, due to the severity of his injury, it's hard to believe that he will be at 100% to start the season. In fact initial reports were projecting him to miss the first month of the regular season.
Andrew Bynum (C), LAL– may be out until late November to early December as he is still recovering from off-season knee surgery.
Marcus Camby (PF/C), POR– is suffering from a strained groin and was limited in training camp. This injury is not expected to linger into the regular season, but Camby is already notorious in fantasy circles for having an injury-filled career.
Greg Oden (C), POR– is healthy, BUT is actually still in the process of undergoing rehabilitation for his knees. As of now his lack of durability makes him a very risky pick in fantasy this season. He is already bordering on being categorized as a full blown BUST.
Yao Ming (C), HOU– It has been reported that Ming will be strictly limited to 24 minutes a game to hopefully preserve his health for the possible post-season. To add injury to injury, he recently suffered from a sprained ankle during camp.
Mehmet Okur (PF/C), UTA– is expected to be back in late November as he is still recovering from an ACL injury late last season.
Kendrick Perkins (C), BOS– is currently expected to be back in February at the earliest. He tore his ACL last season. He should not be drafted at all in upcoming drafts.
Kwame Brown (C), CHA– is out 4-6 weeks. I'm just teasing. I know you weren't really considering drafting him this season anyway. And if you were planning to do so... perhaps Fantasy Football is a better game for you to enjoy.
Over The Hill
There are some players who we simply cannot rely on anymore to deliver the same level of production that we're used to seeing from them in past seasons. They're over that fantasy hill and deserve draft downgrades.
Elton Brand (PF/C), PHI Kevin Garnett (PF), BOS Shaquille O'Neal (C), BOS Brad Miller (C), HOU Ben Wallace (C), DET Jermaine O'Neal (C), BOS Erick Dampier (C), Unsigned Kenyon Martin (PF), DEN
On the bubble: Tim Duncan (PF/C), SAS - is still fantasy viable, but is slowing dropping in MPG and is often rested for long stretches and even for a few games down the stretch of the regular season.
Young and Untested
As some of players age and subsequently drop in value, the NBA continues to draft big men as it adds to the pool players. Some younger players who have been in the NBA for a year or two will now get opportunities to prove themselves. The dilemma with these players is that projections are still just speculative. They are probably workable as draft day targets but it's hit or miss as far as gambling on them in the middle rounds of a draft is concerned.
DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C), SAC (Rookie) Derrick Favors (PF), IND (Rookie) JJ Hickson (PF/C). CLE Greg Monroe (C), DET (Rookie) Amir Johnson (PF), TOR Ed Davis (PF), TOR (Rookie) Josh McRoberts (PF), IND Tiago Splitter (PF/C), SAS (Rookie) Taj Gibson (PF), CHI Serge Ibaka (C). OKC
These players are best as late round investments. If you speculate too heavily on them and value them too highly in the draft, you might not get exactly what you paid for.
So who ARE draft worthy this season? Here is my list of solid, reliable big men that are worthy of their draft positions this season.
Pau Gasol (PF/C), LAL Amar'e Stoudemire (PF/C). NYK Brook Lopez (C). NJN Dwight Howard (C), ORL David Lee (PF/C) GSW Chris Bosh (PF/C), MIA Al Jefferson (PF/C), UTA Al Horford (PF/C), ATL Troy Murphy (PF/C), NJN Marc Gasol (C), MEM Andrea Bargnani (PF/C). TOR Zach Randolph (PF/C), MEM Kevin Love (PF/C), MIN Nene Hilario (PF/C), DEN Joakim Noah (PF/C), CHI Anthony Randolph (PF/C), NYK Andray Blatche (PF/C), WAS LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C), POR Chris Kaman (C), LAC Luis Scola (PF/C), HOU Andris Biedrins (C), GSW Samuel Dalembert (C), SAC Channing Frye (PF/C), PHO Emeka Okafor (PF/C), NOH Brendan Haywood (C), DAL Drew Gooden (PF/C), MIL
Some names to consider in the late rounds are: Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Jason Thompson, Javale McGee, Spencer Hawes, Tyson Chandler
*After Joakim Noah (in the 4th round), the drop off in value is significant. So a hard and fast rule for those of you who are participating in 12-man league drafts with two center starting roster spots, grab AT LEAST one quality big man in the first four rounds. Yes, EVEN if you are playing a small-ball strategy.
14 May 2012
News
Second round Playoff cast is complete!
Sixteen teams made it to the big dance. Now only eight remain.
30 April 2012
News
NBA Playoff Preview - East
The Beasts of the East are raring to take the title back into their side of the map.
BTV Schedule
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07:00 AM Association Nuggets # 5
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07:30 AM 2012 Playoff Playback...
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08:30 AM 2012 Playoff Playback...
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09:30 AM NBA Playoffs...
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12:00 PM Clippers/Spurs Game 2...
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01:00 PM NBA GameTime - Tape


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